We bought Brock Purdy preseason for 5 cents.
It was a bit of a risk-reward situation right out of the gate, as Purdy faced off against the Rams and could’ve easily started the season in a hole.
But Purdy looked great.
He threw for 200 yards and three TDs with a pick. And considering he was going against the preseason Super Bowl favorite, the LA Rams, you can’t be disappointed in that performance.
He followed that up with an electric outing against the Dolphins, throwing for almost 300 yards and two touchdowns while adding another score on the ground.
After that game, his price skyrocketed to almost 20 cents before settling back down around 10-12 cents on Kalshi.
Remember, in a prediction market like this, the price essentially represents what the market believes Purdy’s chances are of winning MVP. We bought him around 5 cents, or roughly a 5% implied probability. At one point, the market was pricing him closer to 20%.
Here’s the takeaway:
We were spot on with the analysis.
The market is moving based on wins and losses.
And, more importantly, it’s moving fast.
There’s no world in which the actual value of Brock Purdy should suddenly 3x because he put together a great game against a team that might not win many games all season.
But alas, here we are.
And that’s exactly what makes this a much more handicappable scenario.
Instead of simply asking whether Brock Purdy is going to win MVP, we can ask a much more useful question:
Who are the Niners playing over the next few weeks, and how long should we actually hold this position?
San Francisco’s next three games are:
- Home against the Cardinals
- Home against the Broncos
- On the road at Seattle
Here’s how I’m playing it:
This is an ultimate hold situation right now.
Let’s get a W next week, hopefully get another strong performance out of Purdy, and then look to sell off a portion of our position before a few tougher matchups down the road.
Of course, once again, this is a risk-reward situation.
If you hold Purdy and he goes out and beats the Broncos and Seahawks, you’ll probably be sitting pretty.
But I think we can extract more value by selling off a portion of our position up top and protecting ourselves against possible losses down the road.
That’s one of the advantages of playing this through a prediction market instead of a traditional futures bet.
We don’t necessarily have to decide right now whether Brock Purdy is actually going to win MVP.
We just need to decide whether his price is likely to go higher.
The Niners look good. Purdy looks great.
But for all we know, he’s played the worst team in the league and a Rams team that might end up being candidates for frauds of the year. We’ll find out a little more about whether that’s true tonight.
Either way, I think another solid performance out of Purdy gets us to the value we’re looking for.
If his price can stabilize somewhere around 15-20 cents, we’ll have an opportunity to extract some profit while still maintaining a solid position on him as San Francisco gets into some tougher matchups.
That’s the sweet spot.
Take some money off the table, reduce the downside, and still keep enough exposure that if Purdy continues making an MVP push, we’re along for the ride.
Ultimate decision: HOLD.