Now this is a guy I can get excited about.
Tyler Shough has only played two games this season, but we’ve already seen just about everything from the second year quarterback.
Week 1 against Detroit started about as poorly as it could have. Shough threw two interceptions, lost a fumble and helped put New Orleans in a 21-0 hole. Then something clicked.
Shough caught fire in the second half, leading the Saints on scoring drives on five of their final six possessions and nearly pulling off the comeback. He finished with a career-high 410 passing yards and three touchdowns, eventually matching Detroit with a touchdown in overtime before New Orleans came up short on a two-point conversion.
A week later in Baltimore, we got a much cleaner version of Shough. He completed 27 of 34 passes for 252 yards and a touchdown without an interception, while adding 23 yards and another touchdown on the ground. With New Orleans trailing 14-3, Shough helped lead another second-half comeback, tying the game with a touchdown pass to Chris Olave before scoring the eventual game-winner himself on fourth-and-goal. (He definitely didn’t get in there, but luckily the stats don’t care.)
Shough began the season trading for less than a cent.
We took a flier on the Saints quarterback, and after two weeks, that position is already paying dividends.
But more importantly, it’s a good example of what we’re looking for in these markets.
In the NFL, if you want to win MVP, wins matter.
You can put up all the numbers you want, but quarterbacks on losing teams are rarely going to seriously enter the conversation. That means with Shough, we’re not just betting on the player. We’re betting on the possibility that the Saints might actually be pretty good.
And through two weeks, I’m not ready to dismiss that possibility.
New Orleans opened the season with two straight road games against Detroit and Baltimore. They nearly came all the way back against the Lions, then went into Baltimore and won. Now they finally come home, with their next three games against the Raiders, Falcons and Vikings.
I like the setup.
The Raiders have started well, so this certainly isn’t three layups in a row. But Atlanta is 0-2 and still sorting through its quarterback situation, and that divisional matchup feels like a real opportunity for New Orleans. Minnesota is 2-0 and Kyler Murray is expected back, so that’s the game where I’d be a little more cautious.
But if the Saints take two of these next three and come out of this stretch 3-2, Shough’s MVP case suddenly becomes a lot more interesting.
If they sweep the stretch and get to 4-1? Now we’re talking about an entirely different market.
That’s why Shough feels a little like Drake Maye last year.
A young quarterback with legitimate upside, playing for a team that entered the season with relatively low expectations, in a division that looks very winnable.
And that’s what makes the price so interesting.
We’ve already seen Shough trade at 5 cents or higher. If you can still get him around 3 cents, I think there’s real value there.
This is ultimately a hold for me. I’m not looking to cash out the position after two games when the upcoming schedule gives us a legitimate chance to see his price continue climbing.
But I also think 3 cents is a buy.
Even if you don’t believe Shough ultimately wins MVP, you don’t necessarily need him to. If the Saints win a few games and his price moves back through 5 cents and potentially beyond, there could be an opportunity to sell enough shares to pull out some or all of your original investment while keeping the rest of the position alive.
That’s the play here.
Hold what we have. Buy at 3 cents if the opportunity is there. Let this three game home stretch play out.
Then we reassess.
Ultimate decision: Hold or Buy